As many of you know, last weekend in the United States was Thanksgiving, and as many of you also know the day after Thanksgiving a Friday is known as Black Friday. It marks the beginning of the Christmas shopping season when, all over the U.S. people start buying presents to be given in late December or early January.
This last Black Friday saw an increase of 12.8% growth bringing the total spend over the Thanksgiving holiday (Thursday thru Sunday) to $59.1 Billion up form the 2011 number of $52.4 Billion. This was due to the more than 20% increase of shoppers, over the weekend, and an average spend increase of 15%.
Now, when I read these numbers, it got me thinking... I wonder if there is any data available on how Black Friday shopping compares to or could predict the coming summer property market. Turns out that there is. In every year that the shopping spend over the thanksgiving weekend is greater than the year before the housing property market is also better.
Now, I grant you that this is not as scientific as say Groundhog Day, but it is a good indicator of things to come in the US.
According the S&P Dow Jones Indices report of October Nineteen of the 20 top cities posted positive monthly gains in August; Seattle was the only exception where prices declined 0.1% over the month, it must be all that coffee.
So what does this mean? I predict with the elections over, the job market increasing, that we will see large growth in the real-estate market in the US. While it’s not time to break out the champagne, I think the U.S. has turned the corner and with it the World is sure to follow.