A recent report by Warc now forecasts an increase for media spend by 3.4% as opposed to an initial assessment of 4% growth made in January. The ‘Consensus Ad Forecast’ is based on ad spend projections across 13 major markets gathered from a number of researchers, and this latest revision is particularly more pessimistic about the prospects of cinema and print. Specifically, cinema ad spend is now slated for just 1.6% growth, down 2.2% points from January, and from 6% growth predicted in August last year.
The forecast for magazines has been downgraded by 1.8% points to -4.3%, while print is projected to fall now by 4.6%, compared to a 2.7% decline in the January forecast.
TV (-0.7% points to 2.5%) and radio (-0.6% points to 1.4%) have also seen their outlooks worsen, while only online advertising (+0.1% points to 13.9%) and out-of-home (+0.2% points to 3.1%) escaped the downgrades.
Overall, Warc expects global ad spending to grow by 3.4% this year before picking up steam and increase by 5.4% next year.
- Russia (-0.2% points to 12.1%),
- China (-1.2% points to 9.7%),
- India (-0.1% points to 8.4%)
- Brazil (-1.7% points to 8.1%)
The US, the world’s largest ad market, is expected to see modest growth of 1.8%, representing a downward revision of 0.4% points from January.
This result we have seen over and over again. While other marketing avenues see slowdowns, and decreases, online continues to grow in market share. Why is this so?
Online encompasses smartphones, smart devices, and what I would call traditional online outlets laptops and desktops. So, while the market share continues to increase in the traditional online outlets the type of outlets also continues to increase. The future of media spend is in multi-active and inter-active outlets that give direct and immediate feedback to consumers. I am talking about the next versions of mobile apps. Remember you heard it here first.