New mandates are to impose tougher limits on fuel consumption and harmful emissions from cars and light trucks. The mandate in China will require 8 percent of automakers’ sales to consist of zero (tailpipe) emission vehicles in 2019 – an equivalent of 120,300 battery electric vehicles to the Volkswagen Group.
The Strategy Analytics report, “OEM Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Strategies: China ZEV Requirement Accelerates Electric Vehicle Demand“, comments on recent developments in electrification and the effect on auto makers’ powertrain strategies.
Click here for the report.
Certain US states, such as California, are also tightening their ZEV Requirement mandate to 4.5 percent of sales in Model Year 2018 and 22 percent of sales in MY 2025. In addition, certain countries are to impose bans on the sale of combustion engine-only vehicles from as early as 2025, all in the effort to limit air pollution.
As Europe has tried to limit greenhouse gas emissions, it has encouraged the use of diesel powertrains, inadvertently causing a rise in nitrogen oxide and particulate matter emissions. The Volkswagen diesel emission scandal has dented consumer confidence in diesel and so Strategy Analytics expects automakers will turn to 48-Volt mild hybrids as a near-term solution. Chronic air pollution in Chinese cities has led to the government taking a tougher line and force automakers to go to battery electric.
The result is that Strategy Analytics now expects a total of over 22 million electrified vehicles to be shipped in 2024, with battery electric, mild-hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles all seeing very strong growth rates.
However, Kevin Mak, Senior Analyst at the Automotive Practice of Strategy Analytics adds caution. “Despite Volkswagen Dieselgate, do not expect to see a mass conversion from diesel to battery electric overnight. Battery and charging technologies are improving, but are not really ready yet to develop models with a practical 300 mile driving range and a 15 minute recharge time. Automakers face the challenge of meeting the near-term mandates with hybridization and still invest billions of dollars to enable a battery electric long-term future.”
SOURCE Strategy Analytics