Proptech-backed real estate company, Redfin, has reported that only 11% of offers on a national level produced a bidding war in July, down more than 45% from last year. This is the lowest numbers the company has seen since at least 2011.
In fact, the national bidding war rate has yet to exceed 15% since November of last year, falling at a steady rate from a peak of just 59% in March of 2018.
"Mortgage rates have been mostly flat for the last month, and so has homebuyer competition, which was beginning a fast descent this time last year as mortgage rates were inching toward 5 percent," said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. "On a local level, it's noteworthy that some of 2018's fiercely competitive markets—San Jose, Seattle, Los Angeles—have seen their bidding war rates plummet the most year over year. Home prices in these expensive markets have also been falling annually. Overall, I expect homebuyer demand to strengthen in the second half of the year as the housing market continues to stabilize, but we may not see a big pop in bidding wars until early next year."
This month, the most competitive market was San Francisco with 35% of Redfin offers facing a bidding war. Even if it holds this year's record, it's still down from 72.4% from last year and up from 28% in June. This coincides with the seven-point increase seen from June to July of 2018.
"Although the market isn't as hot as it was last year, this spring and summer have been busy in San Francisco. That's partly because homebuyers are feeling pressure to move quickly due to the high-profile tech IPOs, whether that pressure is real or perceived," said San Francisco Redfin agent Miriam Westberg. "Low interest rates are also a factor in increased homebuyer interest since the beginning of the year. The market has definitely picked up since the winter and it seems like prices and competition are slowly heading back to mid-2018 levels."
San Diego comes after, with 21.3% of Redfin offers facing competition. Third is Boston with 16.4%, then Los Angeles with 16%, Philadelphia with 14.3% and Denver with 14%. San Jose's bidding war rate was just 13.3% and Seattle's was only 7.8%.
Miami was the least competitive market this month, with just 1.3% of the offers submitted by Redfin agents facing competition. Houston's market saw only 4.8%, New York was just 6.3%, Dallas was 6.6% and Las Vegas was 7.3%.
| Metro area | Share of Redfin | Share of Redfin offers | Share of Redfin offers |
| San Francisco, CA | 35% | 72.4% | 28% |
| San Diego, CA | 21.3% | 61.5% | 19.4% |
| Boston, MA | 16.4% | 63.6% | 17.2% |
| Los Angeles, CA | 16% | 64.6% | 13.7% |
| Philadelphia, PA | 14.3% | 36.7% | 9.1% |
| Denver, CO | 14% | 48.8% | 12.3% |
| Phoenix, AZ | 13.6% | 47.6% | 10.9% |
| San Jose, CA | 13.3% | 80% | 10.5% |
| Sacramento, CA | 9.4% | 39.2% | 11.8% |
| Washington, D.C. | 9.1% | 40.1% | 9.9% |
| Raleigh, NC | 8.9% | 28.6% | 6.6% |
| Portland, OR | 8.7% | 36.6% | 11.8% |
| Chicago, IL | 8.1% | 31% | 10% |
| Seattle, WA | 7.8% | 40.6% | 11.5% |
| Atlanta, GA | 7.8% | 34.7% | 7.2% |
| Austin, TX | 7.8% | 39.0% | 8.7% |
| Las Vegas, NV | 7.3% | 31% | 11.5% |
| Dallas, TX | 6.6% | 43% | 5.3% |
| New York, NY | 6.3% | 40.8% | 15.1% |
| Houston, TX | 4.8% | 37.5% | 7.9% |
| Miami, FL | 1.3% | 29.6% | 0% |
| National | 11.2% | 45.5% | 12.3% |
SOURCE Redfin
Edited by V. Haviland
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